MagnaFat
BAL
August 2026
ORDER
PLAN
Order by May 21, 2026
Order 14 ST from Food Grid at target $963/MT
via Barranquilla, Colombia → OAK
Supplier capacity: 14 ST represents minimal utilization of Food Grid's 3,250 MT/month capacity, leaving substantial headroom for volume increases if demand forecasts are confirmed.
Estimated freight: $0/container
Supply Waterfall
New PO: 1,780 ST
Landed Cost
FOB $963 + broker $1 = $965/MT
Timeline
PO by May 21, ship Jul 1-Jul 15, arrive ~Aug 28
Demand Rationale
24 firm (contracts + orders)
+ 1,756 forecast (0% accuracy)
Price Rationale
FOB $963/MT plus $1/MT broker fee yields a landed cost of $965/MT, competitive within current market conditions for Colombian-origin MagnaFat.
Reasoning: Food Grid offers competitive FOB pricing of $963/MT to address the 1,780 ST supply gap at BAL for August 2026, with 14 ST allocated to cover near-term planning needs ahead of the May 21 order deadline.
Risk:
Forecast demand of 1,756 ST represents 100% of the gap with zero firm commitment, creating significant demand certainty risk that should be validated before full commitment.
Est. $13,504 ($965/MT landed)
MagnaFat
BAL
August 2026
ORDER
PLAN
Order by May 21, 2026
Order 10 ST from Asia Palm at target $933/MT
via Barranquilla, Colombia → OAK
Supplier capacity: 10 ST utilizes only 0% of Asia Palm's 6,000 MT/month capacity, indicating substantial available supply flexibility for larger orders if demand forecasts strengthen.
Estimated freight: $0/container
Supply Waterfall
New PO: 1,780 ST
Landed Cost
FOB $933 + broker $1 = $934/MT
Timeline
PO by May 21, ship Jul 1-Jul 15, arrive ~Aug 28
Demand Rationale
24 firm (contracts + orders)
+ 1,756 forecast (0% accuracy)
Price Rationale
Asia Palm's FOB $933/MT plus $1/MT broker fee totals $934/MT landed cost, representing approximately $31/MT savings versus Food Grid and favorable market positioning.
Reasoning: Asia Palm provides a lower FOB price of $933/MT compared to Food Grid, offering cost savings on 10 ST of the 1,780 ST gap while maintaining the same Colombian supply route and August arrival timeline.
Risk:
Like Food Grid, this order faces the same demand certainty challenge: 1,756 ST of the 1,780 ST gap is forecast-dependent with zero firm backing.
Est. $9,344 ($934/MT landed)
MagnaFat
BAL
August 2026
WAIT
PLAN
Demand Certainty
Demand certainty is critically low at 0% firm; sourcing should be deferred until customer commitments materialize or forecast confidence increases materially.
Wait for demand to firm up before sourcing
Only 0% of demand is from firm contracts. Monitor and re-evaluate as contracts are signed.
Reasoning: Given that 0% of August demand is firm and 1,756 ST of the 1,780 ST gap derives from uncertain forecasts, reducing exposure by deferring sourcing decisions until demand clarity improves is prudent risk management.
Risk:
Proceeding without firm demand backing exposes the company to potential inventory carrying costs and obsolescence risk on 1,756 ST of speculative inventory.