MagnaFat
OAK
August 2026
ORDER
PLAN
Order by May 21, 2026
Order 158 ST from Food Grid at target $963/MT
via Barranquilla, Colombia → OAK
Supplier capacity: 158 ST represents 5% of Food Grid's 3,250 MT/month capacity, indicating strong availability and minimal supply-chain strain.
Estimated freight: $0/container
Supply Waterfall
New PO: 1,681 ST
Landed Cost
FOB $963 + broker $1 = $965/MT
Timeline
PO by May 21, ship Jul 1-Jul 15, arrive ~Aug 28
Demand Rationale
264 firm (contracts + orders)
+ 1,417 forecast (0% accuracy)
Price Rationale
FOB $963/MT plus $1/MT broker fee yields $965/MT landed cost, competitive within current market conditions for Colombia-origin MagnaFat.
Reasoning: Food Grid offers competitive pricing at $963/MT FOB to fill the 1,681 ST gap at Oakland. With firm demand of 264 ST and forecast demand of 1,417 ST, this 158 ST allocation addresses near-term requirements while maintaining flexibility for demand variability.
Risk:
Only 17% of total demand is firm; the remaining 1,417 ST represents forecast exposure. Recommend monitoring demand signals through May to validate forecast before full commitment.
Est. $152,407 ($965/MT landed)
MagnaFat
OAK
August 2026
ORDER
PLAN
Order by May 21, 2026
Order 106 ST from Asia Palm at target $933/MT
via Barranquilla, Colombia → OAK
Supplier capacity: 106 ST utilizes only 2% of Asia Palm's 6,000 MT/month capacity, confirming ample supply headroom and reliable delivery.
Estimated freight: $0/container
Supply Waterfall
New PO: 1,681 ST
Landed Cost
FOB $933 + broker $1 = $934/MT
Timeline
PO by May 21, ship Jul 1-Jul 15, arrive ~Aug 28
Demand Rationale
264 firm (contracts + orders)
+ 1,417 forecast (0% accuracy)
Price Rationale
$933/MT FOB plus $1/MT broker fee equals $934/MT landed cost, $31/MT below Food Grid and favorable for margin protection on uncertain demand.
Reasoning: Asia Palm provides a lower-cost alternative at $933/MT FOB, delivering 106 ST to Oakland and complementing Food Grid's allocation to diversify supplier risk on the 1,681 ST gap.
Risk:
Forecast demand concentration (83% of gap) remains the primary risk. Dual-sourcing mitigates supplier disruption but does not reduce demand uncertainty.
Est. $99,044 ($934/MT landed)
MagnaFat
OAK
August 2026
WAIT
PLAN
Demand Certainty
With only 17% firm demand, deferral is prudent. Recommend re-evaluation in June 2026 once demand signals strengthen and forecast confidence improves.
Wait for demand to firm up before sourcing
Only 17% of demand is from firm contracts. Monitor and re-evaluate as contracts are signed.
Reasoning: Reducing exposure by deferring sourcing on the 1,417 ST forecast-driven gap mitigates overcommitment risk given only 17% demand certainty. This approach preserves capital and flexibility pending demand confirmation.
Risk:
Leaving 1,417 ST unsourced creates stockout risk if forecast materializes; recommend establishing trigger points for opportunistic spot purchases or rapid supplier activation.